Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-07 22:38

82%
Win Probability
+49.9
Projected Margin
CI: [+29.9 to +69.9]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
4
Bust Risk
Omarion Hampton (55%), Bucky Irving (53%), Rams D/ST (57%), Jameson Williams (51%)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett LAR15.319.0BOOMHIGH
RB Bucky Irving NO16.416.0MODERATEMEDIUM
BE Omarion Hampton PHI12.112.5MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATL20.922.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice HOU17.117.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEX Jameson Williams DAL13.817.3BOOMN/A
K Jason Myers ATL8.310.0MODERATEHIGH
D/ST Rams D/ST ARI6.89.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 19% bust
ADD Michael Badgley (K) 33% boom / 42% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 32% boom / 22% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Keenan Allen (Elite ceiling (37 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed. Hampton's return fills RB depth. Monitor Hunter Henry (NE bye) for Week 15. MHJ (heel) and McMillan (CAR bye) remain out.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 14 sees us trailing 24.0-17.3 after Jameson Williams' strong 17.3-point Thursday at Dallas. The big news: Omarion Hampton was ACTIVATED from IR on Saturday and will start Monday vs PHI. With Hampton's 30.7% boom upside in a high-scoring environment (~46.5 game total), he replaces Spears at RB2. Brissett's 5-game hot streak at QB and JSN as WR2 consensus round out a projected 131.9 total. Win probability remains strong at 82%.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 14)

115.7 - 75.6 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (11)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB ✓ 19.0 15.3 19.0 +0.0
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 16.1 16.4 16.0 +0.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 28.1 20.9 22.0 +6.1
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 7.4 17.1 17.0 -9.6
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 7.8 9.7 10.0 -2.2
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 17.3 0.0
Jason Myers K K ✓ 14.0 8.3 10.0 +4.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 6.0 6.9 9.0 -3.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 19.3 17.6 18.0 +1.3
Luther Burden III (bench) WR BE ✓ 11.0 10.3 8.0 +3.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.7 8.6 8.0 -1.3

Games Pending (5)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Omarion Hampton RB RB 12.1 12.5
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
115.7 Starter Actuals
12.5 Remaining Proj
128.2 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (12)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Patrick Mahomes QB QB ✓ 6.3 17.9 20.1 -11.6
Nick Chubb RB RB ✓ 0.3 5.3 7.5 -5.0
Ollie Gordon II RB RB ✓ 7.7 3.2 7.8 +4.5
Keon Coleman WR WR ✓ 3.6 6.7 9.2 -3.1
Malik Washington WR WR ✓ 4.0 8.4 8.2 -4.4
Dalton Kincaid TE TE ✓ 14.1 10.0 9.6 +4.1
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 0.6 12.8 11.9 -12.2
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 8.9 +15.1
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 15.0 5.2 6.3 +9.8
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE ✓ 9.0 7.9 --- +1.1
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE ✓ 20.4 14.7 --- +5.7
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE ✓ 3.0 3.7 --- -0.7

Opponent Games Pending (4)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6 0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
75.6 Opp Actuals
0.0 Opp Remaining
75.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +52.6 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 8 | ECR: 10

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year17.47.1?-10.4
11Ryan's Rowdy Team16.317.7?+1.3
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits17.07.8?-9.1
9The Warsaw Pact 18.19.0?-9.1
8Kitty's Piggy Skins17.128.3?+11.2
7Moms rules 17.413.4?-4.0
6Smooth Roosters19.315.0?-4.4
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 18.626.3?+7.7
3Meat Pistols16.011.1?-4.9
24th and pinches17.620.9?+3.3
1Wookie of the Year14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending down: 10.9 avg (last 3) vs 16.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM[18-26]@22. XGB: 22.5% boom, 34.6% bust - DISAGREES (predicts bust). LLM trusts MC due to Brissett's 5-game hot streak (18+ each). LAR mid-tier defense. High game total (47.5). Mode: BOOM. 19.0 within BOOM [18-26].

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 35% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.718.7?+1.9

Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 22% BOOM[17-28], 61% MOD[8-20]. XGB: 9.8% boom, 52.9% bust - HIGH BUST risk. TB 8.5pt favorite = positive game script. But TB #5 vs RB is tough. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD [8-20].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 5 | ECR: 9

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 0.00.0?+0.0
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 0.00.0?+0.0
6Smooth Roosters0.00.0?+0.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 17.525.5?+8.0
3Meat Pistols17.913.9?-4.0
24th and pinches15.918.1?+2.2
1Wookie of the Year17.314.5?-2.8
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.55)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].

Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: 45

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.66.5?-3.1
11Ryan's Rowdy Team9.08.4?-0.6
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 9.59.2?-0.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.517.2?+7.7
7Moms rules 7.87.0?-0.8
  • Trending down: 5.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.69)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 12.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30.7% boom [14.6-29.6], 40% moderate [5-17], 29.3% bust. ACTIVATED from IR Dec 7 - first game back limits ceiling. PHI allows 25th vs RB. Game total 46.5 favorable. Splitting with Vidal but bell-cow upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.5 (within [5-17]).

Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 25 | ECR: 22

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 0.00.0?+0.0
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
  • Highly consistent scorer (CV: 0.00)

Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 17 | ECR: 95

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year14.526.5?+12.0

Devin Singletary (NYG vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 25%

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.94.7?-5.2
11Ryan's Rowdy Team9.617.7?+8.1
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits9.710.3?+0.6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM[22-36], 43% MOD[12-26]. XGB: 11.6% boom, 24.5% bust - moderate. ATL #15 vs WR (average). ECR WR2 = elite consensus. Selecting high MODERATE. 22.0 within MOD [12-26].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 2

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year21.337.1?+15.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team23.020.6?-2.4
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits22.020.3?-1.7
9The Warsaw Pact 24.522.0?-2.5
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 20.026.3?+6.3
6Smooth Roosters17.930.2?+12.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club15.927.2?+11.3
4Auto DraftKings 16.413.0?-3.4
3Meat Pistols15.520.6?+5.1
24th and pinches14.418.3?+3.9
1Wookie of the Year14.719.4?+4.7
  • Averaging 21.2 pts vs 17.1 projected (+24%)
  • Trending up: 26.0 avg (last 3) vs 16.1 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.311.5?-4.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team13.533.0?+19.5
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.211.0?-1.2
9The Warsaw Pact 12.98.6?-4.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins13.416.9?+3.5
7Moms rules 12.56.3?-6.2
6Smooth Roosters14.617.9?+3.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.213.3?-0.9
4Auto DraftKings 14.210.2?-4.0
3Meat Pistols13.27.8?-5.4
24th and pinches13.516.0?+2.5
1Wookie of the Year13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending up: 18.5 avg (last 3) vs 10.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.52)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits13.314.3?+1.0
9The Warsaw Pact 13.322.6?+9.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 12.57.8?-4.7
6Smooth Roosters11.95.2?-6.7
5Torta Pounders Football Club12.813.8?+1.0
4Auto DraftKings 11.318.6?+7.3
3Meat Pistols12.77.4?-5.3
24th and pinches14.04.7?-9.3
1Wookie of the Year13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.8 avg (last 3) vs 10.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.84)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% BOOM[18-30], 29% MOD[10-20]. XGB: 27.2% boom, 36.6% bust - split. Cold + windy (16mph) concerns. HOU defense average. ECR WR5. Selecting MODERATE due to weather. 17.0 within MOD [10-20].

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year17.624.1?+6.5
11Ryan's Rowdy Team16.49.8?-6.6
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 18.418.6?+0.2
8Kitty's Piggy Skins17.225.5?+8.2
7Moms rules 13.723.2?+9.5
6Smooth Roosters0.00.0?+0.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 0.00.0?+0.0
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 9.2 pts vs 7.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending down: 11.3 avg (last 3) vs 22.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.23)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 8

Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)

Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETE: 17.3 pts actual (52-yd TD at Dallas). Above ESPN proj of 13.8.

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year12.90.0?-12.9
11Ryan's Rowdy Team12.619.7?+7.1

Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.53.9?-8.6
9The Warsaw Pact 14.06.1?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins16.08.4?-7.6
7Moms rules 13.528.9?+15.4
6Smooth Roosters16.36.7?-9.6
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.610.8?-3.8
4Auto DraftKings 13.68.7?-4.9
3Meat Pistols13.419.5?+6.1
24th and pinches12.917.1?+4.2
1Wookie of the Year11.019.8?+8.8
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending down: 6.1 avg (last 3) vs 15.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.61)
  • Season high: 28.9 pts in Week 7

Luther Burden III (CHI vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%

Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team8.37.3?-1.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits7.33.2?-4.1
9The Warsaw Pact 7.90.0?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.97.6?-2.3
7Moms rules 9.39.2?-0.1
6Smooth Roosters8.99.9?+1.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club7.713.3?+5.6
4Auto DraftKings 6.26.9?+0.7
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches8.92.2?-6.7
1Wookie of the Year9.95.1?-4.8
  • Averaging 5.4 pts vs 7.0 projected (-23%)
  • Trending down: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 5.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.81)
  • Season high: 13.3 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 36% BOOM[11-19], 35% MOD[5-13]. XGB: 25.7% boom, 28.2% bust - balanced. NO big underdog = passing likely. TB average vs TE. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 at top of MOD [5-13].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 28% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.310.6?+1.3
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits8.919.2?+10.2
9The Warsaw Pact 8.312.1?+3.8
  • Averaging 10.5 pts vs 6.6 projected (+58%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.76)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: New England Patriots on bye Week 14

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year17.47.1?-10.4
11Ryan's Rowdy Team16.317.7?+1.3
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits17.07.8?-9.1
9The Warsaw Pact 18.19.0?-9.1
8Kitty's Piggy Skins17.128.3?+11.2
7Moms rules 17.413.4?-4.0
6Smooth Roosters19.315.0?-4.4
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 18.626.3?+7.7
3Meat Pistols16.011.1?-4.9
24th and pinches17.620.9?+3.3
1Wookie of the Year14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending down: 10.9 avg (last 3) vs 16.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%

Notes: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.311.5?-4.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team13.533.0?+19.5
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.211.0?-1.2
9The Warsaw Pact 12.98.6?-4.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins13.416.9?+3.5
7Moms rules 12.56.3?-6.2
6Smooth Roosters14.617.9?+3.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.213.3?-0.9
4Auto DraftKings 14.210.2?-4.0
3Meat Pistols13.27.8?-5.4
24th and pinches13.516.0?+2.5
1Wookie of the Year13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending up: 18.5 avg (last 3) vs 10.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.52)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team8.37.3?-1.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits7.33.2?-4.1
9The Warsaw Pact 7.90.0?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.97.6?-2.3
7Moms rules 9.39.2?-0.1
6Smooth Roosters8.99.9?+1.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club7.713.3?+5.6
4Auto DraftKings 6.26.9?+0.7
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches8.92.2?-6.7
1Wookie of the Year9.95.1?-4.8
  • Averaging 5.4 pts vs 7.0 projected (-23%)
  • Trending down: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 5.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.81)
  • Season high: 13.3 pts in Week 5

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%

Notes: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits13.314.3?+1.0
9The Warsaw Pact 13.322.6?+9.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 12.57.8?-4.7
6Smooth Roosters11.95.2?-6.7
5Torta Pounders Football Club12.813.8?+1.0
4Auto DraftKings 11.318.6?+7.3
3Meat Pistols12.77.4?-5.3
24th and pinches14.04.7?-9.3
1Wookie of the Year13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.8 avg (last 3) vs 10.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.84)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.66.5?-3.1
11Ryan's Rowdy Team9.08.4?-0.6
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 9.59.2?-0.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.517.2?+7.7
7Moms rules 7.87.0?-0.8
  • Trending down: 5.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.69)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51%

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year14.526.5?+12.0

Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.53.9?-8.6
9The Warsaw Pact 14.06.1?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins16.08.4?-7.6
7Moms rules 13.528.9?+15.4
6Smooth Roosters16.36.7?-9.6
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.610.8?-3.8
4Auto DraftKings 13.68.7?-4.9
3Meat Pistols13.419.5?+6.1
24th and pinches12.917.1?+4.2
1Wookie of the Year11.019.8?+8.8
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending down: 6.1 avg (last 3) vs 15.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.61)
  • Season high: 28.9 pts in Week 7

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: New England Patriots on bye Week 14

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs NO

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 25%

Notes: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.94.7?-5.2
11Ryan's Rowdy Team9.617.7?+8.1
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits9.710.3?+0.6

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%

Notes: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 17.9 20.1 MODERATE 48% 37% 16% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.4 8.2 MODERATE 27% 46% 27% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 9.1 11.9 MODERATE 23% 52% 25% MEDIUM
Keon Coleman WR 6.7 9.2 MODERATE 15% 55% 30% LOW
Ray Davis RB 0.0 0.0 BUST 13% 36% 51% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 3.2 7.8 BUST 12% 34% 54% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3 MODERATE 12% 42% 46% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 5.3 7.5 BUST 11% 27% 62% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 8.9 8.9 BUST 11% 26% 63% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.0 9.6 BUST 10% 34% 57% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (4): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Keenan Allen (Elite ceiling (37 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%50%
Bust%19%
EV11.8
BUST: 48% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 12% (13-28)
ADD Michael Badgley K,
Boom%33%
Bust%42%
EV8.1
BUST: 28% (1-7) MODERATE: 50% (4-12) BOOM: 22% (8-17)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%32%
Bust%22%
EV9.3
BUST: 48% (2-8) MODERATE: 45% (7-16) BOOM: 7% (16-28)
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn K,
Boom%28%
Bust%31%
EV9.7
BUST: 14% (0-6) MODERATE: 48% (5-12) BOOM: 38% (9-18)
ADD Tyler Allgeier RB,
Boom%28%
Bust%33%
EV0.0
BUST: 48% (-0-7) MODERATE: 35% (4-16) BOOM: 16% (10-25)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 11.8 50% 19% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.1 33% 42% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 9.3 32% 22% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 9.7 28% 31% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 8.7 28% 26% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.3 27% 39% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.9 27% 26% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 6.0 26% 31% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 7.3 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.3 21% 37% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 15.5 19% 50% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 8.1 17% 53% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 15.5 BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 19% 50%
Kyler Murray 17.1 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 14% 49%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 13% 41%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 11.8 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 50% 19%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Isiah Pacheco 8.9 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 27% 26%
Trey Benson 8.3 BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% 21% 37%
Devin Neal 8.9 BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% 15% 47%
Chuba Hubbard 10.9 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 49%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.1 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 9% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.3 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.7 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 10.4 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 12% 58%
Rashid Shaheed 9.2 BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% 10% 58%
Tre Tucker 10.1 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 42%
Jayden Reed 11.6 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 9.3 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 32% 22%
Harold Fannin Jr. 8.7 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 28% 26%
Colston Loveland 9.4 BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.1 33% 42%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9.7 28% 31%
Evan McPherson 8.1 17% 53%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 6.0 26% 31%
Patriots D/ST 7.3 22% 43%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.310.0MODERATE44.3%34.7%21.1%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR---0.0OUT36.7%43.8%19.5%
Jordan LoveQB17.618.0MODERATE29.5%49.6%20.9%
Rashee RiceWR17.117.0MODERATE27.2%36.2%36.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE25.7%46.1%28.2%
Evan EngramTE8.16.0BUST25.3%49.2%25.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.319.0BOOM22.5%42.8%34.6%
Rams D/STD/ST6.89.0MODERATE13.8%29.2%57.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.68.0MODERATE13.7%47.3%39.0%
Emanuel WilsonRB6.16.0BUST12.7%36.5%50.7%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.922.0MODERATE11.6%63.9%24.5%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---0.0BYE11.1%36.6%52.3%
Keenan AllenWR10.58.0BUST11.0%35.9%53.1%
Omarion HamptonRB12.112.5MODERATE10.8%33.9%55.3%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.817.3BOOM10.7%38.1%51.2%
Bucky IrvingRB16.416.0MODERATE9.8%37.3%52.9%
Hunter HenryTE---0.0BYE8.7%31.2%60.1%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-07 22:37

Matchup Summary

90.4%

Win Probability

+39.3
Expected Margin
128.2
My Team (LLM Proj)
89.5
Opponent (Proj)
29.8
Margin Std Dev
121.2
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: +0.8 pts | Median: +39.5 pts | Ceiling: +77.1 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
RB Nick Chubb OUT 6.9 Christian McCaffrey 25.3

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 19.0 4.4-28.3 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 16.1 4.6-24.4 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 11% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.5 2.5-24.0 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 28.1 5.7-30.0 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 6% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 7.4 7.0-28.1 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.3 4.2-25.6 ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 7.8 2.4-16.8 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 0.0-17.7 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 43% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 14.0 4.7-16.4 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 13% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 19.3 6.5-28.2 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 6.7 2.1-20.1 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 0.0 0.1-16.5 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 0.0 4.9-25.9 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luther Burden III WR HIGH 11.0 0.7-18.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 38% Luther Burden III
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.4-21.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.1 9.8-31.4 ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB LOW 7.5 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.8 0.4-17.1 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.9 4.2-23.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.5-18.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.2 2.1-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 27% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-20.6 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 8.9 3.2-16.4 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.5-26.9 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 16% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.5-34.7 ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.8 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 0.0 0.2-16.0 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-19.9 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.5 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Omarion Hampton RB 31% @ 22.1 40% @ 11.0 29% @ 3.9 12.3
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed. Hampton's return fills RB depth. Monitor Hunter Henry (NE bye) for Week 15. MHJ (heel) and McMillan (CAR bye) remain out.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

2.7
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.3
Prediction Scatter Error Distribution

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 12.5 0.0 -12.5
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 13 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_049 (2025-11-30)

5.9
Our Team MAE
16 players
16
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.9
Prediction Scatter Error Distribution

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.9 24.0 4.3 -19.7
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 11.8 15.1 26.9 +11.8
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 18.1 18.4 29.4 +11.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 9.5 19.0 +9.5
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 7.5 10.0 1.0 -9.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 15.7 18.2 25.8 +7.6
Our Team RB Emanuel Wilson 5.6 8.9 1.4 -7.5
Our Team TE Evan Engram 8.1 7.5 13.9 +6.4
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 11.8 12.0 16.1 +4.1
Our Team WR Keenan Allen 12.0 10.0 7.0 -3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 8.7 11.0 8.9 -2.1
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 11.3 -1.7
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 13.7 14.0 12.9 -1.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 17.2 20.0 19.6 -0.4
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 8.5 8.4 -0.1
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 15.6 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 16.4 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 24.7 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 5.6 pts
Median (50th) 17.0 pts
90th percentile 29.8 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 10.4 pts
90th percentile 26.2 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Evan Engram (TE)
09182736Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
52%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
8%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 15.7 pts
MC (Historical)
8% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
37% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 17.1 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
47%
10th percentile 7.0 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
47% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.6 pts
BUST
20%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 2.1 pts
Median (50th) 8.3 pts
90th percentile 20.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.5 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 2.5 pts
Median (50th) 10.6 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 10.1 pts
90th percentile 16.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
44% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 16.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 17.3 pts
ESPN 13.8 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 14.2 pts
90th percentile 25.7 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Emanuel Wilson (RB)
011223344Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 6.1 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 20.7 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 15.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
5%
BOOM
70%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 28.4 pts
MC (Historical)
70% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
22% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.8 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 6.3 pts
90th percentile 17.8 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Keenan Allen (WR)
012233446Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.5 pts
BUST
63%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.3 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 0.1 pts
Median (50th) 4.4 pts
90th percentile 16.4 pts
Luther Burden III (WR)
Luther Burden III distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.3 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.0 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Patrick Mahomes distribution
LLM 20.1 pts
ESPN 17.9 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
47%
10th percentile 9.8 pts
Median (50th) 19.5 pts
90th percentile 31.4 pts
MC (Historical)
47% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Vikings D/ST (D/ST)
Vikings D/ST distribution
LLM 6.3 pts
ESPN 5.2 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 2.8 pts
90th percentile 21.0 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
DJ Moore (WR)
DJ Moore distribution
LLM 11.9 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
64%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
2%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 22.8 pts
MC (Historical)
2% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Malik Washington (WR)
Malik Washington distribution
LLM 8.2 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
48%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 2.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.4 pts
90th percentile 15.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Nick Chubb (RB)
Nick Chubb distribution
LLM 7.5 pts
ESPN 5.3 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 1.6 pts
Median (50th) 5.9 pts
90th percentile 15.8 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Dalton Kincaid distribution
LLM 9.6 pts
ESPN 10.0 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
33%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
33% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Brandon Aubrey (K)
Brandon Aubrey distribution
LLM 8.9 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
50%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.1 pts
90th percentile 16.5 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Ray Davis (RB)
Ray Davis distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 0.2 pts
Median (50th) 5.3 pts
90th percentile 16.2 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Ollie Gordon II (RB)
Ollie Gordon II distribution
LLM 7.8 pts
ESPN 3.2 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 6.7 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Keon Coleman (WR)
Keon Coleman distribution
LLM 9.2 pts
ESPN 6.7 pts
BUST
45%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM